Everyday Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Figures

The typical figure of per-day murders monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new administrative statistics. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have advised that homicide data could fail to signal improved countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This information was provided by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen during these past months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Intense cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the President declared: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, security experts cautioned that relying on homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true considering the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it might hide periods when there were especially spiking numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily average makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to express their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to create a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst concluded.